In less than a week’s time, the once cautiously optimistic decision by Haitian gangs to disarm has been abandoned. Similar to another tenuous peace agreement halfway around the world, the consensus of Cite Soleil drug lords and kingpins to give up their violent ways was, to say the least, fragile to begin with.

It is a matter of incentive. Surely President Préval’s ultimatum, “Give up your weapons or die” is a pretty good one. But from the stance of your everyday, urban youth in Port-au-Prince, where anonymity is all but certain, what real incentive is there to turn over that new leaf and to relinquish that which provides you status, protection, and income?

By this situation, I am reminded of the classic Prisoners’ Dilemma, in which two players try to get rewards by cooperating with or betraying the other. As it turns out in this example, as in Haiti, the solution is sadly sub-optimal – meaning that, since in any situation keeping weapons is more beneficial than losing them, all rational players will choose to keep them. This will be the case when one player will always gain a greater payoff by keeping his/her weapon than cooperating with authorities.

Historically, weapons buybacks and disarmament programs have been a lark. Decades old revolvers and shotguns are all they typically produce. And, I seriously doubt that the drug runners from S.A. are really toting .38 specials and M1 Garands to duke it out with the Department of Homeland Security on the high seas.

Weapons can be easily replaced. Why then go through the steps of temporarily disarming everyone? Furthermore, what is there to ensure that everyone plays fair?

Certainly, just as Africans once asked why former soldiers, who were guilty of unimaginable atrocities, received education and benefits to reenter society, Haitians too may well ask, why should the chimere and vagabon yo receive equal/better treatment than the average, tax paying, law abiding citizen? That sure sounds a lot like a disincentive to me.

Asking gangs to give up their weapons is a noble cause, however a red herring. It most likely stands to weaken Préval’s administration unless he can manage to back up his rhetoric and exact (true) justice. Otherwise there will be no reconciliation.

Incentives and goals should be changed. Don’t waist time collecting guns that can be easily replaced. Use those resources to bolster economic endeavors. Than strip man of the weapons to enact violence, it is superior to remove the incentive to resort to it.

Robert Miller